adminThe projected Call of Duty install base is set to shrink as Activision moves away from PlayStation 4 and Xbox One. A new analysis estimates that adding a Switch 2 release will not fully offset the audience lost by ending support for those older consoles, while the cost of current-generation hardware may limit how quickly players upgrade.
Call of Duty install base projected to fall 5.6%
According to analyst Neil Barbour of S&P, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 is expected to reach a global installed base of 147.5 million consoles. That is 5.6% below the estimated audience for last year’s Black Ops 7, a game widely regarded as having underperformed.
The projection reflects a change in the platforms included in the release. Activision is dropping Xbox One and PlayStation 4 support, while bringing the franchise to Nintendo’s Switch 2 for the first time since 2013. S&P estimates that 36 million PS4 and Xbox One users will remain active by the end of 2026, compared with a projected 33.9 million Switch 2 consoles by that point.
These figures describe the potential console audience, not a forecast of how many copies the game will sell. When comparing projections, it is useful to distinguish an installed base from actual buyers: not every console owner will play or purchase a particular release.
Switch 2 adds reach but brings performance trade-offs
Barbour said Microsoft’s commitment to bring Call of Duty to Nintendo platforms helped make a Switch release part of the plan during the Activision Blizzard acquisition process. However, the Switch 2 is less powerful than the PS5 and Xbox Series S and X, according to the analyst.
Its newer architecture may make it easier for developers to scale the game, but performance differences still need to be considered. For players, the practical point is that a cross-platform release does not necessarily mean identical graphics or performance on every console.
Image credit: Activision
Install-base comparison credit: S&P Global
Console prices could slow upgrades
The analysis also points to hardware prices as a possible limit on the current-generation audience. Sony increased PS5 prices globally in March, while Xbox prices rose twice in 2025. Higher console costs can make upgrading less accessible for players still using older systems.
For anyone deciding whether to upgrade for a new release, it is worth checking the game’s confirmed platform support and comparing the total cost of a console with the games and services they plan to use. The reported install-base figures are projections, so they may change as hardware sales and player activity develop.
Call of Duty’s transition between console generations
The franchise has continued to support older hardware for an unusually long time. PlayStation 4 received Call of Duty releases for five years after its successor launched, while PlayStation 3 support ended after two years.
Activision has also announced changes to its release schedule following Black Ops 7’s sluggish launch. More recently, new Call of Duty releases were removed from the company’s Game Pass subscription service as part of changes led by new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
What the projected audience means
The expected Call of Duty install base highlights a transition: dropping PS4 and Xbox One gives developers more room to use the capabilities of newer systems, but the Switch 2 release is not expected to replace the audience of the departing consoles. Hardware pricing and platform performance will remain important factors as the franchise reaches players across this mix of systems.
