adminGame console shipments are forecast to fall 19.5% to 33.9 million units in 2026, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan. Higher hardware prices and a relatively limited schedule of major releases are putting pressure on demand across the home console market.
Image credit: Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo
Game console shipments face pressure in 2026
The forecast reverses some of the growth recorded after the Nintendo Switch 2 launched. Global shipments rose 13.5% to 42.1 million units last year, but higher component costs—particularly for RAM and storage—have contributed to console price increases and made new hardware less affordable for some buyers.
Compiled in July 2026, the S&P forecast covers home consoles from Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo. It projects shipments will decline to about 27.1 million units in 2027 before gradually recovering to 37.4 million by 2030. These figures are forecasts, not confirmed sales results, and describe shipments within the report’s stated scope.
Analyst Neil Barbour said the projected recovery depends in part on the component shortage easing by 2028. Under that assumption, Sony and Microsoft could introduce next-generation hardware priced in the $600 to $800 range. Barbour also pointed to a challenging mix of aging or expensive devices, fewer major software releases, and limited room for meaningful price cuts.
Practical takeaway: Buyers comparing consoles can consider both the upfront hardware cost and the games expected to arrive during the next year. A lower shipment forecast does not by itself indicate whether a particular console is suitable for an individual player.
Image credit: S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan
Nintendo Switch 2 forecast
S&P expects Switch 2 shipments to reach 17.1 million units in 2026, a level comparable to the original Switch’s second-year performance and similar to the Wii. Nintendo’s latest full-year results project a 16.9% decline, to 16.5 million units, in the Switch 2’s second fiscal year after launch.
The report cites a $50 price increase as one factor that could affect demand. It also highlights the lack of a major near-term software release, noting that the major title Pokémon Wind and Waves is not scheduled to launch until late 2027. Release timing can matter to prospective buyers, so checking a console’s announced game lineup may help when deciding whether to purchase now or wait.
PlayStation 5 shipments
In 2025, its sixth year on the market, PlayStation 5 shipped 17.1 million units across all models, down 15.2% year over year. S&P forecasts a further decline to 13.2 million units in 2026.
Sony raised prices for every PS5 model in April 2026 amid the RAM crisis. The standard PS5 increased from $550 to $650, the digital edition from $500 to $600, and the Pro from $750 to $900. Barbour said those prices may be difficult to justify for consumers considering a six-year-old console. He also noted that the PS5’s sales gap compared with the PS4 is already negative and continuing to widen.
The forecast also questions whether the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6 can offset the effect of higher prices, despite likely demand for compatible hardware. S&P models a possible PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, with 4 million units in its first year and 17.2 million by 2030. These are projections, not announced sales targets.
Xbox Series X|S and Microsoft’s next console
Microsoft shipped 3.2 million Xbox Series X|S consoles in 2025, its lowest annual total on record. In S&P’s dataset, quarterly shipments dropped below 500,000 for the first time in Q1 2026. The firm forecasts 2.5 million Xbox Series units in 2026, followed by a rapid decline toward zero.
Barbour linked the outlook to an uneven first-party game lineup, a subscription-focused strategy that did not significantly lift hardware sales, and pricing that places an Xbox Series X $100 above a standard PS5. When comparing platforms, buyers may want to weigh the game libraries and services they will actually use alongside the console price.
Microsoft’s next-generation system, codenamed Project Helix, is expected to support Xbox and PC games as well as backwards compatibility. Those capabilities could mean a higher price and, according to Barbour, potentially a more enthusiast-focused audience. S&P estimates the next Xbox could sell roughly 2 million units in its launch year and reach 7.3 million by 2030.
Barbour cautioned that Microsoft’s post-2027 outlook is uncertain. A fully open PC platform carrying Xbox branding would differ from a conventional console and might not be included in the model. The forecast therefore reflects a range of possible outcomes, depending on decisions that have yet to be made or disclosed.
What the 2026 game console shipments forecast means
S&P’s estimates point to a difficult near-term market, with higher prices and release schedules influencing demand across Nintendo, PlayStation, and Xbox. The projected recovery later in the decade depends on component costs easing and new hardware reaching consumers at prices they are willing to pay. Because the figures are forecasts, actual game console shipments may differ as hardware plans, pricing, and software release dates change.
